First Time Weapons Offense Recidivism Analysis (Preliminary)

Established in 2018 across Illinois, the First Time Weapon Offense Program (FTWOP) allows courts to sentence eligible individuals, with the consent of the defendant and the State, to the FTWOP. Successful completion of the program results in dismissal of charges, avoiding a felony conviction on the person’s record (Drumm, A., & Powers M., 2023). Initially, only 18–20-year-olds with qualifying firearm possession charges and no prior violent conviction were eligible for this program. The age restriction was lifted in July 2023, expanding access to all individuals who meet qualification criteria. The FTWOP is administered by the Adult Probation Department as part of its standard supervision strategies.

In March 2023, APD conducted an outcome analysis, comparing participants in the FTWOP to a matched group of individuals similar to the FTWOP population in key ways. Samples for this analysis consisted of 505 individuals who were sentenced to the FTWOP in 2018 and 2019, and a comparison group of 491 individuals aged 18-20 who were sentenced to probation on a UUW charge prior to 2018. While this analysis is not a program evaluation, it does compare recidivism rates of FTWOP participants with a comparison group, in effect examining whether the promise of forgiving charges upon successful program completion has any deterrent effect on recidivism.

The overall during-probation re-arrest rate for the FTWOP sample is 52.9%. The during-probation felony re-arrest rate was 38.2%, and the during-probation violent re-arrest rate was 19.2%. On average, individuals spent 291 days on probation before their first re-arrest. Over 37% of arrests occurred in the first 6 months of probation, and 70% of arrests occurred within the first full year of probation. The overall during-probation re-arrest rate for the comparison group was 61.1%. Their during-probation felony re-arrest rate was 40.1%, and their during-probation violent re-arrest rate was 20.2%. The comparison group spent a median of 210 days on probation before their first re-arrest. Over 42% of arrests occurred in the comparison group’s first 6 months of probation, and over 73% of arrests occurred within the first full year of probation.

Preliminary findings reveal that FTWOP participants experience fewer arrests overall, and fewer misdemeanor arrests specifically than a comparable group of non-FTWOP participants. This suggests that participation in the FTWOP program, even as it exists currently without specific, targeted programming, provides a public safety benefit to both participants and the community. Additionally, the finding that at least 70% of arrests for both groups occurred during an individual’s first year on probation suggests that interventions should be introduced to this population swiftly at the front end of their probation terms, in order to have the largest impact.